Team of the Decade?

Who is it. Feeeeedback.

Enter Spitman

Update: Rivera has been "cleared of all charges". That was fun while it lasted.

Trade Papelbon?

I didn't think this needed to be addressed, but it obviously needs to be. The Red Sox season ended a week ago yesterday. The Red Sox owned a 5-2 lead heading into the eighth inning. They were six outs away from Jon Lester pitching on short rest in Game Four. Billy Wagner entered, after Daniel Bard was lights out, and quickly got two outs. Wagner then proceeded to leave the game after he surrendered a couple of baseruners. Papelbon came on, with two runners in scoring position, and gave up a base-hit to score both of those runs. Score 5-4, Sox. Papelbon got out of the jam, and the Red Sox even added on an insurance run in the bottom of that frame to make the score 6-4. The Angels, down to their final strike after two quick outs by Paps in the 9th, put together quality at-bat after another. Papelbon would go on to surrender three runs in the inning and the Red Sox lost the game 7-6. It was a shocking conclusion to a game in which looked to be locked up. It was a heartbreaking way to end the game and the season. Trade speculation has grown rampid, and New Englanders alike are calling for the four-time All Star's head.

The essential question: With Papelbon insisting on testing the free agent market in a few years, should the Red Sox trade him while his value is still high?

The 2010 Boston Red Sox, already at a crossroad in their history, wouldn't feel nearly as comfortable heading into the ninth inning if Jonathan Papelbon wasn't toeing the rubber. Under only one scenario would I trade Papelbon:

1. The Red Sox gain key prospects in a deal, coupled with some of their own, that would allow them to deal for a big bat (Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez).

2. Billy Wagner is retained as the closer until Bard can take over.

3. With the loss of a dominating bullpen arm, the Red Sox lack depth at the back end of the 'pen. A power arm must be acquired to make up for the loss.

Outside of that, you hold onto your star closer and see what happens in free agency. If he isn't reasonable in his demands, then you part ways. Daniel Bard is more than capable of being a dominant closer in this league. Papelbon should have signed the extension last year, because now he doesn't have any of the leverage heading into any negotiations.

Could Prince Fielder be acquired without giving up Buchholz or Bard?

Is it possible? Sound off Sox fans. Or Yankee fans. Or anyone, really.

It's an insane question.

Feels like Yestahday

*Courtesy of Survivng Grady

Red Sox Blueprint

As promised, here is the blueprint to get the Red Sox back into the elite. Here is my one disclaimer: Just because the New York Yankees may spend money or make trades to improve their team does not mean that the Sox should do so hastily. The Yankees are on top of the baseball world right now; their reign will be over soon enough--especially with their aging veterans.

The blueprint will be an organizational breakdown about what to do this off season while keeping a keen eye on the future.

Left field might be the second hardest position that the Red Sox will face in deciding their future. Outside of sluggers Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, the free agent market is filled with aged veterans who are about to hand 'em up. The exception to that, however, is Carl Crawford. Crawford, technically, is not a free agent. The Tampa Bay Rays possess his $10 M option for 2010. In the following season, Crawford is fair game. Crawford and Ellsbury in the same lineup would be absolutely crazy. The Yankees are going to be a factor in this equation, like it or not. After this season, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsuis's contracts come off of the books. Like the Red Sox, the Yankees would like to add the left-handed hitter.

In 2011, the Red Sox are going to have to spend some money if they would like to retain key cogs to their core. Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez are free agents. Joe Mauer is, as well.

Payroll will be a concern for this team moving forward. Theo Epstein wants a 100 million dollar payroll while having a a monster player-development system. Committing money to a LF'er, C (Mauer?), SP (Beckett, Roy Halladay [Age 35], Cliff Lee [Age 32] or Brandon Webb [Age 31] might be too much all in one season for the Sox. Committing to Matt Holliday this year will provide the team with a run producer in 2010 and a reasonable shot at contention.

In 2012, free agents will be aplenty. Felix Hernandez (25 in 2012) and Prince Fielder (27 in 2012) will be the marquee free agents.

It does not make sense for the Red Sox to deal top-notch organizational talent (Buchholz, Bard, Westmoreland, Kelly, etc.) to acquire these top players when they are so close to free agency. If Buchholz and Bard were dealt for these players this year, sure, the Red Sox would be in excellent shape for the 2010 season--partly. If Buchholz were dealt, the rotation depth would become very thing after Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka. If Bard were dealt, who would the primary set-up man be? Justin Masterson held that position for the Sox before he was dealt for Martinez. What would happen if we dealt Bard for that primary hitter and then Papelbon left to another team? Who would be closing out games? Theo Epstein is going to have to spend some money. Theo Epstein is going to have to break some organizational relationships with some players (Ortiz, Varitek, Lowell).

Heading into the off season, I would target Matt Holliday. If the price is deemed too much or the years too long, then don't sign him. Select an aging free agent and sign him for one season. Maybe the prodigal son, Johnny Damon, returns to the Red Sox for one last season?

The Red Sox have a lot of decisions to make. They have a lot of money to spend. Outside of 2010, the future looks amazing. Prime talent is evolving through the system and Theo's true dream is about to come forth: Build a player-development monster and add key, critical free agents to add to that mix.

Red Sox in the Midst of a Transition Era

In the next few posts you will read about my blueprint breakdown as to how to fix the Red Sox. In 2007, the Sox enjoyed more success than any team in the sport. Even in 2008 with the trade of Manny Ramirez and the Game 7 loss in the AlCS, we enjoyed playoff success. Although the playoff success was non-existent in 2009, the team should--and the fan base--be in a wonderland after what the team accomplished throughout the campaign.

After every unsuccessful year in Boston, there is a season wrap-up from the men in charge: Theo Epstein, Terry Francona and other top organization executives. Theo Epstein, in so many words, gave us a beware warning for next year.

The end of 2008, with the glaring weaknesses in the team, and the start of 2009--with those same weaknesses still intact--signaled the start of a transition phase for the Red Sox. If it had been up to Theo Epstein, this transition phase would be going a lot easier than what it is now.

Again, when the Red Sox lost out on Mark Teixeira, it left a gaping hole in the middle of the order. The addition of Teixeira potentially could have the transition from the old championship core (Ortiz, Lowell, Varitek and Wakefield) to the emergence of the young and versatile group of key players (Pedroia, Lester, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Bard) seamlessly.

It will be more beneficial to not sign players like Chone Figgins, John Lackey or even Matt Holliday (Yes, I know I'm an advocate of the signing) to try and prop the 2010 team up. As you look at teams around the league like the Chicago White Sox or the Houston Astros, you can see how overwhelming contracts can squeeze a team financially to death.

The Red Sox' farm system, at the upper levels, is depleted. With the old guard under performing, some of the upper level talent has been called up. The Red Sox face a 2010 season in which they have their old guard finishing up their contracts and potentially their careers, while the organization awaits the next slew of young talent.

In my upcoming posts, I was going to write and analyze how the Red Sox should and could pry away a top hitter like Prince Fielder away. At this point in time, dealing Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard should be the last thing that Theo Epstein and Co. should be thinking about. Obviously, Milwaukee desires at least some proven major league talent--and right now, the Red Sox can't afford to deal those type of players away. With Josh Beckett's decline approaching (it may even be happening now) and the likelihood that Jonathan Papelbon will test the free agent market and seek the most lucrative offer in sight, the Red Sox need to hold onto their emerging ace and potential closer.

Red Sox fans must brace for the realization that we may have Josh Reddick or a lower-level free agent manning left field next year. The Red Sox SHOULD NOT guarantee Jason Bay money. Period. I'm starting to doubt whether they should do so with Matt Holliday, as well.

Red Sox fans must also brace the fact that 2010 might be the year that this storied franchise misses the playoffs, like 2006. Although 2006 and 2010 could potentially be looked back on as years that the Sox failed to earn a postseason berth, it should be noted that both years will have a different means to the same end. The 2006 Red Sox failed to make the postseason for flat out under performing with one of the worst Red Sox pitching staffs in recent memory. Key injuries down the stretch coupled with Manny Ramirez quitting on the team cost the Sox their chance at a ring.

In 2010 the failure to miss the postseason could be of a depleted pitching staff or of key injuries, but the most obvious and critical reason could be because of the old core of the team will continue their decline instead of discovering the fountain of youth.

I feel almost guilty calling 2010 a "rebuilding year" or a "transition year" because with every year that you fail to make the postseason or win a championship with players like Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury or Daniel Bard means that they are one more year closer to a potential free agent market or a year closer to each of their declines.

I read an article today from Alan Greenwood, a columnist over at the Nashua Telegraph, and I hadn't realized what the 2009 Red Sox actually did. They didn't just win 95 games and the AL Wild Card. They have brought a team to the postseason that probably didn't have any business being there:

"Someone who could speak candidly with Theo Epstein – that is, someone he trusts and who does not come with a notebook, a digital recorder or a TV camera – might hear him sum up the 2009 Red Sox thusly: 
Do you really understand what we’re in the middle of trying to do? We are trying to complete a transition from one generation of core players to another while remaining a contender in baseball’s toughest division."

The level of entitlement that Red Sox fans displayed at Fenway Park this postseason was unbelievable and disgraceful. Maybe a year of missing October baseball will fix some of the knuckle heads in Red Sox Nation. Maybe not.

Over the next couple of years, the Red Sox must avoid bad contracts. This is the mess that got them in this position. The 2011 free agent class will be a far better selection of players than the prior seasons'. The Red Sox, if the New York Yankees don't sign a left fielder this off season, could sign Carl Crawford to reside over the Green Monster. The Victor Martinez era could potentially be over as well with Joe Mauer becoming available.

A look to the 2012 MLB off season is far premature, but key free agents like Prince Fielder and Felix Hernandez are on the *potential* list if they aren't re-signed with their clubs. Here's the question to ask: Why spend the vast amount of talent on a huge trade acquisition when two years down the line all you would have to do is offer money and not talent? Oh, and by the way, a man by the name of Albert Pujols will be available that off season as well.

The 2010 blueprint that I wrote a few days ago should be taken under the consideration of attempting to fix the Sox THIS year. However, the long-term plan that I will create tomorrow is for a long period of winning and duck boat celebrations.

The LF Debate

PC: Theo Epstein's crucial 2010 offseason begins in LF. If the Red Sox do not secure a legitimate LF'er, their season is finished.

This is one of the most essential questions that the Red Sox will face this off season. Who will be manning left field for the team? From past players like Ted Williams, Carl Yasztremski, Jim Rice to Manny Ramirez, the Red Sox have had great play from their Green Monster defenders. When Ramirez got himself traded out of Boston in 2008, Jason Bay took over that duty. Bay posted huge power numbers--just like the other premier left fielders--but his awful defensive play AND his age will come into play as to whether they should re-sign the Canadian-born slugger.

One of the biggest deficiencies for the 2009 club was the defense. Jason Bay, along with Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Varitek and whichever shortstop played (outside of Alex Gonzalez) all brought negative UZR ratings. If the Red Sox care about defense--and trust me, they do--Jason Bay should be the second choice for the offseason--even if he is a fan favorite.

Bottom Line: Jason Bay hustles, hits for power and overall is a real likeable player. The fan base, as a majority, would like to re-sign this player. Depending on Matt Holliday's demands, Bay should be playing left field for a new team next year--even if it is for the team from the Bronx. If Holliday prices Boston out of his range, then the Sox should look seriously towards re-signing Bay for a contract of no longer than 4 years. Bay, 31, is a DH. He hits for serious power, but his play in LF hurts the team and cancels the offense out.

Matt Holliday should be the target. In 2009, Holliday posted an above average UZR of 5.3. Honestly, Matt Holliday is an offensive force, but he is not the best left fielder in Major League Baseball. Holliday typically hits for a high average (.318 career) and drives in runs at a solid pace (592 career). Holliday is often criticized for being an average hitter playing in a small park (Coors Field), but when Holliday switched to a spacious coliseum in Oakland, the Scott Boars client did not hit for much power. During the season when Holliday was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals, his power returned.

In December of 2006, the Red Sox forked out 70 million dollars for JD Drew. Some questioned the move, others approved and applauded the signing of the player who replaced long-time great Trot Nixon. Drew represented an offensive upgrade along with significantly better DEFENSE in right field. Along with his OBP% being excellent, Drew fit the Red Sox philosophy of taking pitches and working counts. As we fast forward to 2009, if there is a free agent that fits that same criteria it's Matt Holliday. Holliday doesn't work the counts as much as Drew, but what he lacks in the patience category he makes up for in driving runs in. Holliday, 30, would be an excellent addition to the Sox. He hustles just like Bay and he is a gritty player. If there are any concerns about him and his ability to play in bigger stadiums, it should go out the window. The Green Monster in Fenway Park would be the landing zone for Holliday's moonshots.

The Red Sox should sign Matt Holliday. The line in the sand that the organization places for each desired free agent should be placed at 6 years and 120 million dollars.

Prediction: Red Sox sign Matt Holliday at that exact price: 6 years and 120 million. Holliday takes over as the top paid player for the payroll. 20 million a year for Holliday should satisfy his demands while the Red Sox get a top notch player.

Letter to the Front Office: Change is Needed

PC: Is it time to recycle this version of the Red Sox?

The following is a letter that I sent to the Boston Red Sox organization after the three-game sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:

The Boston Red Sox could have been considered the definite team of the decade. Over the course of the new millennium, the Red Sox have won two World Series titles, one American League East championship and qualified for a postseason berth six out of ten years. In an ever-changing decade, the Sawx are the only team to win multiple championships so far--the Phillies, Angels and Yankees have above-average chances at completing this feat as well.

There once was a dark era in Boston when winning wasn't taken for granted--only because winning the WS happened about as much as the Houston Texans making the playoffs. A sense of entitlement has settled all over the homes of Red Sox Nation. Many of us avid and passionate Red Sox fans still exist, but the lust for winning and the desire for this to be the year that ends all long-standing curses has ceased to exist. Moreover, it is becoming a trendy and fashionable statement to like the Sox. It is no longer about how the team plays, but if the team remains popular. The Red Sox have not won the World Series since 2007; in the past two years, the Old Towne Team has lost Game 7 of the 2008 ALCS to the once-mighty Rays and received a beat down from the sumo-like Angels. This will be the time in which we separate the true fans from the bandwagon fools. I wonder how many Red Sox jerseys will turn into pinstriped hats over the winter.

The 2009 Red Sox couldn't have been more confusing. For the first time in the Theo Epstein era, we lacked an identity. At the start of our season, we had a total of 8 starting pitchers that made up one of the deepest pitching staffs in the history of baseball (Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Penny, Smoltz, Buchholz and Bowden). This was the strength of our club; to reach our ultimate goal, another World Series championship, our starting pitching was going to have to perform on a consistent basis-- something this Red Sox team hadn't accomplished since our last WS title in '07. At the end of the season, the starting rotation was as follows: Jon Lester (new ace), Josh Beckett (old ace), Clay Buchholz, a rejuvenated Dasiuke Matsuzaka and a trio of pitchers in Tim Wakefield, Paul Byrd (?!) and Michael Bowden.

One of the American League's most offensively talented teams lacked any kind of fire power and did not strike fear into opposing pitchers' minds as it had done for the past six seasons-- even with the acquisition of Victor Martinez. Players like David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek continued their rabid declines. Key offensive players such as Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis could not maintain their level of play from the prior campaign, but yet still posted significant numbers albeit inconsistent at times.

The Red Sox expected--and received--a high level of play from their outfield. Jacoby Ellsbury showed the Fenway Faithful that he can be a reliable and consistent player in the Major Leagues. Although Ellsbury stole 70 bases this year-- a new Red Sox single season record--his defense negated the thefts after posting a UZR (defensive metric) of -13.5. Jason Bay posted Manny Ramirez-like numbers in 2009 when he hit 36 bombs and drove in 119 runners. Although Bay posted high power numbers, his average dipped to .267. While his UZR improved from 2008 (-18.4) to 2009 (-13.9), Bay negated some of his offensive prowess-- just like Ellsbury. In 2009, the Red Sox received great play from JD Drew in RF. Drew contained the second-highest OPS for AL outfielders in the second half of the season. Drew hit close to .280 at .279 while hitting over 20 homeruns for his second time in a Sox uniform. Drew--unlike the other two Red Sox outfielders-- played outstanding defense in a tricky Fenway Park right field. Drew posted a customary 9.7 UZR, which is terrific. All in all, the Red Sox outfielders hit very well, but it didn't matter much because of their horrible play in CF and LF.

This organization and front office has proven that they can nadle the upper elite organizations of the league. This same club, however, has proved to be a bit to conservative when it comes to acquiring the talent that takes to win. The Red Sox identify quality players that fit our style of play. They need not spend on free agent pitchers who demand top-dollar contracts. What the organization values the most--and it values it too much sometimes--is young pitching. The organization also sets a number on a player and they do not cross the proverbial line.

The Mark Teixeira negotiations are a great example. It was reported that the All- Star first baseman demanded an eight-year, 176 million dollar contract. It was also reported that the Red Sox offered 168 million. Teixeira would put his John Hancock on the line had the Sox ponied up a mere eight million dollars more. Long story short, we lost at the last minute when the New York Yankees jumped into the negotiations and brought him to New York for 180 million. The Yankees spent the money and, along with other top free-agent acquisitions, won 103 regular season games and now face the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for the American League Pennant.

After losing out on Teixeira, the organization smartly made short-term, high-upside signings. John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Rocco Baldelli, Takashi Saito and Mark Kotsay assumed key roles for the team, but they were obviously Plan B after losing out on Mr. Teixeira.

The Red Sox, after losing Game 7 of the 2008 AlCS, recognized that they needed an impact bat for their weak middle-of-the-order after they dealt a legendary hitter in Manny ramirez away to the Dodgers of that same year. Entering 2009, questions about the potency of the offense returned and lingered throughout the year. The acquistion of Victor Martinez was a step in the right direction towards acquiring impact hitting while dealing away young and affordable pitching.

Earlier this month, we were exposed for the second straight year in October. We scored seven runs in 27 innings of playoff baseball.

If the 2010 version of the Red Sox want to return to glory, ugrades need to occur. Here is my blueprint:

Offense:

• Victor Martinez needs to be the everyday catcher
• Kevin Youkilis needs to hit behind Dustin Pedroia (3rd)
• Matt Holliday, and not Jason Bay, needs to be manning left field next year (UZR efficiency)
• Mike Lowell needs to be either platooned with David Ortiz as the DH or traded away
• David Ortiz needs to return to being Big Papi
• A reliable and productive shortstop needs to be acquired (NOT Marco Scutaro--Type A FA would cost two draft picks and he is not worth that)
• An impact bat must be traded for: Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder

Lineup:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury---CF

2. Dustin Pedroia---2B

3. Kevin Youkilis---3B

4. Prince Fielder---1B

5. Victor Martinez---C

6. Matt Holliday---LF

7. David Ortiz/ Mike Lowell---DH

8. Miguel Tejada---SS

9, JD Drew---RF

Pitching:

• Cannot trade Clay Buchholz
• Cannot trade Daniel Bard
• Sign a low-rish, high-reward type pitcher (Harden, Bedard, Sheets or Duchsherer)
• Retain Billy Wagner

Rotation:

1. LHP---Jon Lester

2. RHP---Josh Beckett

3. RHP---Clay Buchholz

4. RHP---Daisuke Matsuzaka

5. LHP/RHP---Erik Bedard/ Rich Harden

Bullpen:

CL- Jonathan Papelbon

SU- Billy Wagner

SU- Daniel Bard

MR- Hideki Okajima

MR- Manny Delcarmen

MR- Takashi Saito

MR- Brandon Lyon

It is unwise to destroy or blow-up championship teams. The 2009 Red Sox team looked too much like the 2008 and 2006 version to remain intact. Aging veterans like Jason Varitek, David Ortiz and Mike Lowell should be retained, but a new influx of primed talent should be injected into this team if another deep October run is expected.

As Tony Massarotti wrote about this year's version of the Red Sox , "Good enough to make the playoffs, flawed enough to fall short of a championship."