Monday, October 19, 2009

Red Sox Blueprint

As promised, here is the blueprint to get the Red Sox back into the elite. Here is my one disclaimer: Just because the New York Yankees may spend money or make trades to improve their team does not mean that the Sox should do so hastily. The Yankees are on top of the baseball world right now; their reign will be over soon enough--especially with their aging veterans.

The blueprint will be an organizational breakdown about what to do this off season while keeping a keen eye on the future.

Left field might be the second hardest position that the Red Sox will face in deciding their future. Outside of sluggers Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, the free agent market is filled with aged veterans who are about to hand 'em up. The exception to that, however, is Carl Crawford. Crawford, technically, is not a free agent. The Tampa Bay Rays possess his $10 M option for 2010. In the following season, Crawford is fair game. Crawford and Ellsbury in the same lineup would be absolutely crazy. The Yankees are going to be a factor in this equation, like it or not. After this season, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsuis's contracts come off of the books. Like the Red Sox, the Yankees would like to add the left-handed hitter.

In 2011, the Red Sox are going to have to spend some money if they would like to retain key cogs to their core. Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez are free agents. Joe Mauer is, as well.

Payroll will be a concern for this team moving forward. Theo Epstein wants a 100 million dollar payroll while having a a monster player-development system. Committing money to a LF'er, C (Mauer?), SP (Beckett, Roy Halladay [Age 35], Cliff Lee [Age 32] or Brandon Webb [Age 31] might be too much all in one season for the Sox. Committing to Matt Holliday this year will provide the team with a run producer in 2010 and a reasonable shot at contention.

In 2012, free agents will be aplenty. Felix Hernandez (25 in 2012) and Prince Fielder (27 in 2012) will be the marquee free agents.

It does not make sense for the Red Sox to deal top-notch organizational talent (Buchholz, Bard, Westmoreland, Kelly, etc.) to acquire these top players when they are so close to free agency. If Buchholz and Bard were dealt for these players this year, sure, the Red Sox would be in excellent shape for the 2010 season--partly. If Buchholz were dealt, the rotation depth would become very thing after Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka. If Bard were dealt, who would the primary set-up man be? Justin Masterson held that position for the Sox before he was dealt for Martinez. What would happen if we dealt Bard for that primary hitter and then Papelbon left to another team? Who would be closing out games? Theo Epstein is going to have to spend some money. Theo Epstein is going to have to break some organizational relationships with some players (Ortiz, Varitek, Lowell).

Heading into the off season, I would target Matt Holliday. If the price is deemed too much or the years too long, then don't sign him. Select an aging free agent and sign him for one season. Maybe the prodigal son, Johnny Damon, returns to the Red Sox for one last season?

The Red Sox have a lot of decisions to make. They have a lot of money to spend. Outside of 2010, the future looks amazing. Prime talent is evolving through the system and Theo's true dream is about to come forth: Build a player-development monster and add key, critical free agents to add to that mix.

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