Red Sox in the Midst of a Transition Era

In the next few posts you will read about my blueprint breakdown as to how to fix the Red Sox. In 2007, the Sox enjoyed more success than any team in the sport. Even in 2008 with the trade of Manny Ramirez and the Game 7 loss in the AlCS, we enjoyed playoff success. Although the playoff success was non-existent in 2009, the team should--and the fan base--be in a wonderland after what the team accomplished throughout the campaign.

After every unsuccessful year in Boston, there is a season wrap-up from the men in charge: Theo Epstein, Terry Francona and other top organization executives. Theo Epstein, in so many words, gave us a beware warning for next year.

The end of 2008, with the glaring weaknesses in the team, and the start of 2009--with those same weaknesses still intact--signaled the start of a transition phase for the Red Sox. If it had been up to Theo Epstein, this transition phase would be going a lot easier than what it is now.

Again, when the Red Sox lost out on Mark Teixeira, it left a gaping hole in the middle of the order. The addition of Teixeira potentially could have the transition from the old championship core (Ortiz, Lowell, Varitek and Wakefield) to the emergence of the young and versatile group of key players (Pedroia, Lester, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Bard) seamlessly.

It will be more beneficial to not sign players like Chone Figgins, John Lackey or even Matt Holliday (Yes, I know I'm an advocate of the signing) to try and prop the 2010 team up. As you look at teams around the league like the Chicago White Sox or the Houston Astros, you can see how overwhelming contracts can squeeze a team financially to death.

The Red Sox' farm system, at the upper levels, is depleted. With the old guard under performing, some of the upper level talent has been called up. The Red Sox face a 2010 season in which they have their old guard finishing up their contracts and potentially their careers, while the organization awaits the next slew of young talent.

In my upcoming posts, I was going to write and analyze how the Red Sox should and could pry away a top hitter like Prince Fielder away. At this point in time, dealing Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard should be the last thing that Theo Epstein and Co. should be thinking about. Obviously, Milwaukee desires at least some proven major league talent--and right now, the Red Sox can't afford to deal those type of players away. With Josh Beckett's decline approaching (it may even be happening now) and the likelihood that Jonathan Papelbon will test the free agent market and seek the most lucrative offer in sight, the Red Sox need to hold onto their emerging ace and potential closer.

Red Sox fans must brace for the realization that we may have Josh Reddick or a lower-level free agent manning left field next year. The Red Sox SHOULD NOT guarantee Jason Bay money. Period. I'm starting to doubt whether they should do so with Matt Holliday, as well.

Red Sox fans must also brace the fact that 2010 might be the year that this storied franchise misses the playoffs, like 2006. Although 2006 and 2010 could potentially be looked back on as years that the Sox failed to earn a postseason berth, it should be noted that both years will have a different means to the same end. The 2006 Red Sox failed to make the postseason for flat out under performing with one of the worst Red Sox pitching staffs in recent memory. Key injuries down the stretch coupled with Manny Ramirez quitting on the team cost the Sox their chance at a ring.

In 2010 the failure to miss the postseason could be of a depleted pitching staff or of key injuries, but the most obvious and critical reason could be because of the old core of the team will continue their decline instead of discovering the fountain of youth.

I feel almost guilty calling 2010 a "rebuilding year" or a "transition year" because with every year that you fail to make the postseason or win a championship with players like Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury or Daniel Bard means that they are one more year closer to a potential free agent market or a year closer to each of their declines.

I read an article today from Alan Greenwood, a columnist over at the Nashua Telegraph, and I hadn't realized what the 2009 Red Sox actually did. They didn't just win 95 games and the AL Wild Card. They have brought a team to the postseason that probably didn't have any business being there:

"Someone who could speak candidly with Theo Epstein – that is, someone he trusts and who does not come with a notebook, a digital recorder or a TV camera – might hear him sum up the 2009 Red Sox thusly: 
Do you really understand what we’re in the middle of trying to do? We are trying to complete a transition from one generation of core players to another while remaining a contender in baseball’s toughest division."

The level of entitlement that Red Sox fans displayed at Fenway Park this postseason was unbelievable and disgraceful. Maybe a year of missing October baseball will fix some of the knuckle heads in Red Sox Nation. Maybe not.

Over the next couple of years, the Red Sox must avoid bad contracts. This is the mess that got them in this position. The 2011 free agent class will be a far better selection of players than the prior seasons'. The Red Sox, if the New York Yankees don't sign a left fielder this off season, could sign Carl Crawford to reside over the Green Monster. The Victor Martinez era could potentially be over as well with Joe Mauer becoming available.

A look to the 2012 MLB off season is far premature, but key free agents like Prince Fielder and Felix Hernandez are on the *potential* list if they aren't re-signed with their clubs. Here's the question to ask: Why spend the vast amount of talent on a huge trade acquisition when two years down the line all you would have to do is offer money and not talent? Oh, and by the way, a man by the name of Albert Pujols will be available that off season as well.

The 2010 blueprint that I wrote a few days ago should be taken under the consideration of attempting to fix the Sox THIS year. However, the long-term plan that I will create tomorrow is for a long period of winning and duck boat celebrations.